Webinar: Carbon pricing trends 2026 – Some notable points for Vietnam's forest carbon credits

On June 2, 2026, the Network for Agricultural and Forestry Policy Research organized a webinar “Carbon Pricing Trends 2026 – Some Notable Points for Vietnam's Forest Carbon Credits,” analyzing the World Bank's (WB) “Carbon Pricing Trends 2026” report. The event outlined significant global shifts in carbon pricing trends and shaped a path for Vietnam's forest carbon credit market.

End of the “Single-Price” Credit Era

The most prominent trend in 2026 is a deep price differentiation based on the quality and reputation of each project, instead of a uniform approach as before.

• 5-fold price difference based on rating: According to data organization Sylvera, for the same type of new afforestation/reforestation project, those with high credibility ratings (BBB or higher) fetch prices up to 30 USD/t CO₂e. Meanwhile, low-rated projects sell for under 9 USD, and unrated projects achieve just over 6 USD. Assessment organizations (such as BeZero) indicate that for every rating upgrade, a project's credit value can increase by 16% to 87%.
• Price differentiation by region and type: As of early 2026, credits from REDD+ projects in Southeast Asia reached 12 USD/t CO₂e (a significant recovery after Indonesia temporarily halted exports). The same type of project in South America was only priced at 7 USD.
• Supply shift: Currently, supply from the forestry and land-use sector is increasing sharply (36%), while the renewable energy sector is gradually decreasing (38%).
• “Offtake” (future contracts) trend: In 2025, there was a wave of major corporations spending up to 12 billion USD (a three-fold increase) to sign pre-purchase contracts for credits from projects in their formative stages. Of these, projects using technology to capture/remove carbon accounted for 67% of the value, while nature-based projects (such as afforestation) accounted for 19%. Businesses tend to invest early upstream to secure high-quality products.

International Authorization Bottleneck

The global market faces a paradox: High demand, but actual transactions are hindered by a lack of authorization or acceptance from host countries. For a carbon credit to be internationally traded, the host country must complete the approval procedure and commit to implementing “Corresponding Adjustments” (CA) to avoid double-counting towards its National Determined Contribution (NDC) emission reduction targets. Although the volume of emission reduction outcomes/credits unilaterally approved reaches 270 million tons, only 43.5 million tons have actually been issued due to cautious legal procedures in host countries assessing NDC impacts, and projects still being in the design phase, not yet implemented.

In Vietnam: Legal Framework Open, Operation on Schedule

• Domestic Market (By 2026): Piloting an Emission Trading System (ETS) with 110 large enterprises in high-emission sectors (thermal power, iron and steel, cement). These enterprises are allowed to use carbon credits to offset up to 30% of their allocated emissions, ensuring that such credits are registered on the National Registry System (NRS) and comply with related regulations.
• Market Operation and International Integration (From 2029): Vietnam will finalize regulations to operate the market and participate in international markets. Currently, there is an export “door” with a control mechanism: forestry projects are capped at a maximum of 50% of emission reduction outcomes/credits for international transfer with Corresponding Adjustments (CA).

Three Core Messages for Vietnamese Forest Developers

Concluding the discussion, experts offered 3 guiding remarks for Vietnam's forest carbon credits:

• Demand doesn't come on its own: Vietnam's legal framework is being completed, but the domestic market will not operate synchronously before 2029 as scheduled. Meanwhile, selling forest carbon credits internationally – especially if aiming for approval/corresponding adjustments to achieve high prices – requires very strict procedures.
• Choose your “playground” from the start: Project owners must decide from the design phase whether their target market is domestic or international. This choice will determine the project's legal process and price range. If domestic standards are chosen, procedures will be simpler but prices will follow the domestic market; if international standards are chosen, the opportunity for higher prices comes with stringent technical and legal conditions.
• Shift to investment cooperation: International buyers are increasingly looking for projects with legal transparency, clear carbon ownership, precise technical roadmaps, and demonstrable benefits for local communities and biodiversity.